During the ten year period to 1956, the population of Greater Winnipeg increased from 312,342 to 409,687, or by an annual average of about three per cent. This population growth was comprised partly of natural increase, partly of persons from other parts of Canada and from other countries. Expansion of the local economy provided the necessary increase in employment opportunity, which enabled the additional adult population to earn a livelihood. The enlargement of the local population required the construction of thousands of new dwelling units; enlargement of the local economy required new factories, warehouses, stores and office buildings. New residential, industrial, and commercial districts appeared in Greater Winnipeg, on land hitherto vacant or used for agricultural purposes. The increase of population, and the construction of housing and other forms of building in new districts required an expansion of municipal services; it has become necessary to construct and operate dozens of new schools, to build miles of sewers, water mains, pavement and sidewalks in new districts; it has become necessary to expand in size or number those central facilities which serve the entire metropolitan area, such as hospitals, bridges, arterial thoroughfares.
There is every reason to expect that the rate of growth experienced by Greater Winnipeg during the past decade, will be sustained during the next generation. Immigration and natural increase are likely to continue at the same rate as heretofore; the Winnipeg economy, thanks to its solid establishment and strategic location, is likely to expand with the general growth of Canada, and therefore to offer the growing volume of employment opportunity required to support an expanding population. In its brief to the Gordon Commission, the Provincial Government forecast that the population of Greater Winnipeg would be 650,000 in 1981; the Metropolitan Planning Commission, using later census material, has forecast that the population of Greater Winnipeg might reach 760,000 in that year. In the light of the developments of the past ten years, and the prospects for the future, these are reasonable anticipations. All thinking and planning in regard to the future of Greater Winnipeg must be based on the premise that the population of the metropolitan area will rise by approximately three hundred thousand within the next twenty-five years. Thinking and planning on any other basis would be unwarranted and unreasonable.
To house this additional population, approximately 100,000 additional dwelling units will be built in the Greater Winnipeg area during the next 25 years. In the light of recent North American trends, it appears probable that the greater part of these additional dwelling units will consist of single family houses, built beyond the present perimeter of development, on land now in agricultural use. Some portion, perhaps up to 25 per cent, of the additional population, will be housed in apartment blocks built in more central locations, on land now occupied by houses.
Expansion of the local economy will require the construction of scores of new factories, warehouses, office buildings and retail stores. These too, will most likely be built, for the large part, in new districts beyond the rim of existing development, on land now in agricultural use. Some portion of this industrial and commercial expansion will likely take place as well in Central Winnipeg, on sites presently occupied by older, deteriorated housing and other buildings.
Despite the likely construction of additional apartment blocks in Central Winnipeg, the population of the City itself is unlikely to grow substantially. The gain in housing units consequent on the construction of new apartment blocks will be substantially offset by the demolition of old homes to make room for the apartment blocks, and for industrial or commercial buildings. Hence it must be expected that there will be constructed, beyond the perimeter of present development, virtually the entire amount of additional housing accommodation required by the addition of approximately three hundred thousand persons to the present population of Greater Winnipeg, together with the major portion of industrial and commercial buildings required by the expansion of the local economy.
If the new development were to spread out fanwise from the perimeter of existing development, and evenly in all directions, the new houses and business buildings would be located in a belt of land approximately one and a half miles wide encircling the presently built up area. It may happen, of course, that the new development will not spread out evenly in all directions; there has been a distinct tendency in recent years for North American cities to expand primarily t the West and South. Winnipeg's post war development has so far conformed; if this will happen in Greater Winnipeg, the metropolitan area may extend three or four miles to the South and West, but hardly at all to the North and East.
The new districts will have to be provided with public services similar to those provided today in Greater Winnipeg. Their municipal authorities will be obliged to build and operate schools, to lay out parks and playgrounds, to provide fire and police protection and welfare services. Municipal authorities of the new districts will have to arrange the construction of sewer and water mains, street and sidewalk pavements, either by private contractors or as public undertakings. The expansion of population in the suburbs will render necessary as well the expansion of centrally located facilities which serve the entire metropolitan area. It will become necessary to enlarge hospital capacity, auditorium space, down-town parking facilities; it will become necessary to build additional bridges across the rivers, freeways through the down-town area, and to widen central arterial streets, in order to accommodate the increased flow of traffic to and from the expanding suburban areas. It will become necessary to build an additional aqueduct, reservoirs, water pumping stations, sewage disposal plants and interceptor sewers, to meet the expanded need for water supply and sewage disposal throughout the metropolitan area. (1)
In the course of this massive development, there will be abundant opportunity for public authorities to make serious mistakes, mistakes which will result in excessive costs, great inconvenience, or the inequitable distribution of financial burdens among the members of the Metropolitan community. Mistakes may be made as a result of forecasting errors, or through failure to adopt sensible measures based on reasonable anticipations. Mistakes may be made in consequence of the fact that some of the authorities responsible for development are lacking in experience, or area financially restricted. Mistakes may be made because one individual or a small group manages to promote private interests, to the detriment of the community as a whole. Specific types of possible errors are cited below:
Poor quality homes and commercial buildings may be permitted on the fringes of existing developments, which subsequently interfere with the orderly expansion of the metropolitan area. When the built-up area moves out toward them, it becomes necessary to demolish such properties, or to build around them; in either case, cost and inconvenience will be incurred which might have been avoided.
Municipal authorities may permit the installation of individual septic tanks for sewage disposal in areas suitable to normal residential development. The installation of a large number of septic tanks within a given area is likely to produce serious health problems, as the absorptive capacity of our local soil is extremely limited; with a great many septic tank installations in one area, raw sewage will seep to the surface as the soil became saturated, giving rise to disagreeable odors and a threat to health. I due course it will become necessary to install a municipal sewage disposal system, in which case the investment involved in septic tank installations will become largely wasted.
The use of septic tanks will give rise to yet another problem. Where sewage is to be disposed of by this method, building lots must be considerably larger than normal, in order to furnish an adequate disposal field. As a result individual homes will be on large lots and far apart. When subsequently the spread of the urban area renders it desirable to increase the density of housing in this district, it may prove difficult or impossible because of the original development on the basis of large lots.
Municipal authorities may permit the establishment of industrial plants which give off disagreeable odors, or whole operations are noisy, in localities which are more suitable for ultimate residential development. Similarly, the authorities may permit residential construction to be carried out in localities which are best suited for industrial development, — possibly because they can be provided most efficiently and economically with the sewer and water services which industrial firms require. In either case, the best use will not be made of the land area available to Greater Winnipeg; as a result, costs will become greater than necessary, and inconvenience will be imposed on the general public which could have been avoided by proper zoning.
A municipality, or private contractor, may install sewers and water mains, and lay out streets, adequate for the needs of one particular development. When, however, the built-up area spreads out farther, these streets, sewers, and water mains will be called upon to carry both local and transit traffic, and should be built beforehand of sufficient size and capacity. Thus trunk sewers should be of sufficient capacity to carry, not merely locally originating sewage, but also the sewage of the new district which will in due course arise just beyond. Water mains similarly should be of adequate size to supply the new district when its need develops. Appropriately located streets should be built of sufficient width and laid with sufficiently heavy pavement to carry through traffic as well as local.
Failure to exercise such foresight will result in heavy costs that might have been avoided. While the extra cost of initially installing a larger sewer pipe or water main is relatively small, the cost of increasing capacity subsequently is very large. It becomes necessary either to replace the small pipe with a larger one, or to duplicate the small pipe. Either procedure requires a complete duplication of the original excavations, to be carried out, in all likelihood, under far more difficult conditions than were the original excavations. While the original sewer and water lines were laid in raw land, where digging was relatively easy, replacement or duplication will have to be carried out after the area has been developed, -- laced with concrete streets and sidewalks and lined with lawns and boulevards. The normal flow of traffic will further impede digging operations in an area already developed, adding further to the cost of enlarging sewers and water main capacity.
Similarly it is far more difficult and costly to widen a street and increase the thickness of its pavement, than it is to build it of adequate width and weight in its original construction. Private property may have to be acquired at considerable cost, valuable buildings may have to be demolished, traffic must be disrupted during the period of re-construction. Owners of properties fronting on the street may, quite legitimately, oppose the un-anticipated transformation of their street into an arterial thoroughfare.
The costly mistake of installing inadequate capacity, whether of street, sewer or water main, is all too likely to be made. A small, financially weak municipality may understandably carry out the installation which will meet its actual needs at minimum cost. A private contractor developing a particular district will understandably install only those facilities required for his development; to him there would be no advantage in installing facilities of larger capacity, because he would have no means of re-couping the extra cost. Through sheer lack of experience, local authorities may install facilities which prove to be inadequate.
Since the servicing of raw land with streets, sewer and water facilities is most economically done on a large scale, the minimum economic unit for such development is a substantial block of land. It follows therefore tat only a limited number of new developments ought to be carried on at any one time; if a number of large size projects were simultaneously developed, the supply of serviced land would greatly exceed the demand. Possibly for a period of years afterward, serviced land would lie unoccupied, accumulating heavy interest charges on the capital invested in its development, with no corresponding benefit being yielded. Hence it is desirable that the number of new projects carried out at any one time be the minimum number required to provide for immediately prospective needs, while affording a sufficient selection to satisfy varying tastes.
A comparable error may be made by developing land distant from the existing built-up area, when serviceable land is still available closer in. The cost of servicing would be greater than necessary, owning to the additional lengths required of streets, water mains and sewers; subsequent costs of transportation and communication would be correspondingly enhanced. Meantime the streets, water mains and sewers would be passing, en route to the development which they served, through unoccupied land which they could also serve. The cost of these facilities would be unduly high to those served by them, since their cost would be borne only by the area actually served, instead of being apportioned over the entire area which could be served, including the land trough which these facilities passed en route.
As the population of Greater Winnipeg increases and the built-up area spreads out further, the cost of providing municipal services is likely to increase more than proportionately. A number of services which are provided by small municipalities at low cost, will have to be provided, when the municipalities become large, in new ways at much higher cost.
Today small suburban municipalities collect garbage infrequently or not at all; with larger populations and frequent garbage collection will become imperative. Some municipalities dispose of garbage simply by dumping it in disposal grounds; with population growth and the spread of the built-up area, the danger to health posed by this method of garbage disposal will likely become too great to permit its continued use. The spread of the built-up area will increase the cost of hauling garbage for disposal outside the metropolitan area, rendering advisable the use of centrally controlled, costly, incinerators or composting plants. Higher land costs in the vicinity of the metropolitan area will cause the trench and fill method, and even open dumping, to become more expensive.
The cost of sewage disposal is likely to rise sharply with further population growth. At present a portion of local sewage is cheaply disposed of by simply passing it into the Red or Assiniboine River; the remainder is subjected to only a partial treatment at the disposal plant in Old Kildonan. There is therefore even today a considerable flow of sewage into the two rivers; during a period of low water flow, such as was experienced in the 1930s, difficult sanitary problems would develop. Even without the situation becoming critical from a sanitary point of view, it is quite possible that public opinion may require elimination of even the present flow of sewage into the rivers. If we are to use the rivers for boating and swimming purposes, and enjoy them as beauty spots, such action will have to be taken.
Costs of sewage disposal are therefore likely to rise considerably with further population growth. Of the additional sewage which develops, all will have to be treated, and treated more fully than is being done at present. Even without population growth, the cost of sewage disposal would likely rise because of the population improvement in standards.
The cost of sewage disposal is likely to rise for yet another reason. The main elements in Greater Winnipeg's sewage disposal system were built long ago, when construction costs were much lower than they are today. The initial works have been fully paid for; such payments as must still be made for later additions. The original plant and the interceptor sewers were, furthermore, built during the Depression of the 1930's, partly as relief works, with the Federal Government paying 40% of the cost, and the Provincial Government 20%. Most of the main trunk sewers in Greater Winnipeg were laid down during the pre-1914 building boom, and were paid for long ago.
The presently available sewage disposal facilities are being used practically to the fullest extent possible; any large addition to the volume of metropolitan area sewage will require the construction of major new facilities, including disposal plants, interceptor and trunk sewers. It will no longer be possible to evade the cost of building sewage disposal facilities by making use of installations laid down, and paid for, by a previous generation: The new facilities which will be required, will be built when construction costs are very much higher than those prevailing when our present sewage disposal facilities were installed, and interest rates possibly higher as well.
A further reason for higher sewerage costs in the future is the fact that whereas in the past combined sewers were built, which carried both rain water and sewage, henceforth it will be necessary to construct separate sewers for each type of flow. In some districts now served by combined sewers, it may become necessary to install, at very great cost, a system of storm relief sewers designed to handle the rain water flow.
Growth of the metropolitan population will require an increased supply of water; the cost of enlarging the present supply will be heavy. At present the Greater Winnipeg water supply reaches the metropolitan area through an aqueduct constructed forty years ago. Any significant increase in the need for water in Greater Winnipeg will require the construction of another aqueduct. (1) In addition, more reservoirs will be required, and more pumping stations. As with sewage facilities, it will no longer be possible to use facilities built and largely paid for by a previous generation. Furthermore, construction of the new facilities will cost a great deal more than did the original ones, in consequence of the large increase in construction costs which has occurred.
Heavy expenditures will be required on bridges, freeways and arterial thoroughfares throughout the metropolitan area. The enlarged volume of traffic will oblige such new facilities to be built to superior standards, at heavy cost. Acquisition of the rights-of-way will become ever more costly if it becomes necessary to build freeways through developed areas, where land values are high, and where substantial buildings stand on the routes proposed.
The costs of public transit will rise as the spread of the metropolitan area causes routes to be ever longer, reaching into areas where the density of human population is low, but the density of automobile population is high. Transit loses are likely to rise as present trends continue toward an increased suburban population, and an increased ratio of automobile ownership.
Welfare and police costs are likely to rise more than proportionately to population. The incidence of social breakdown, and of crime, tend to be disproportionately higher in larger cities, and it may be expected that, as Greater Winnipeg grows, it will experience an increase in incidence of such problems. What with a higher incidence of problems, and an increasing concern about them, welfare costs are likely to rise faster than does population.
Costs will rise because in all likelihood additional public services will be provided as the population grows. Some services are not provided in some communities because, while the need exists, it is not of sufficient magnitude to justify the establishment and operation of the facilities required to meet that need. With an increase of population, however, the need may reach dimensions sufficient to justify provision of the service required. The consequence is beneficial, since persons who previously were not given the necessary service now receive it, but municipal costs are increased. Thus, for instance, there may be a few retarded children in a small community; nothing is done for them, since their number may be too small to justify the establishment of a special institution for them; if the community grows, however, the number of such children will become correspondingly larger, until the time comes when there are enough such children to justify the organization of special facilities for them.
Another new cost which may have to be borne by Greater Winnipeg in the near future, is a share of the cost of a major flood protection scheme. While both the Federal and Provincial Governments will no doubt bear the major burden, a substantial portion of the cost will remain to be carried by the people of Greater Winnipeg.
The prospective increase of population and spread of the built-up are of Greater Winnipeg will give rise to the possibility of making serious mistakes which will unnecessarily increase costs, and impose avoidable inconvenience upon the metropolitan community. Inadequate co-ordination of effort among the different sectors of the metropolitan area will be the most likely reason for such mistakes. Proper co-ordination of effort among all the authorities concerned would ensure an efficient, economic, and orderly expansion of Greater Winnipeg with a minimum of errors. Full co-operation will be needed to ensure that the major new facilities which will be required to meet the growing needs of the metropolitan area as a whole, are appropriately located, and that their cost is equitably distributed.
The additional aqueduct, reservoirs and pumping stations which will be built to meet our increased water needs should be located on the basis of engineering principles, not municipal boundaries. These new facilities will serve the entire metropolitan area, and their location should be co-operatively planned to ensure minimum costs of construction and subsequent operation.
An additional sewage disposal plant, perhaps two, will have to be built, together with interceptors, trunk sewers, and storm sewers. These too, should be located on the basis of engineering considerations, so as to minimize construction costs and subsequent operational costs. Area-wide co-operation will be needed to ensure that this optimum location was achieved.
Co-operation will be needed to ensure that the garbage of the metropolitan area is disposed of in its most expeditious and economical manner. It may turn out that the most economical method of garbage disposal would be incineration in large plants. In that event it will become necessary to establish a small number of strategically located incinerators throughout the metropolitan area, so that haulage distances will be held down to a minimum. Each plant would serve a designated sector of the metropolitan area, without reference to municipal boundaries. If the trench and fill method of disposal were used, it would still be desirable to maintain only a limited number of disposal grounds, each serving one sector of the metropolitan area. Whether incinerator were used, or the trench and fill method, or both, co-operation among all the municipalities will be required to ensure that the garbage of Greater Winnipeg is sanitarily disposed of, in the most economic manner possible.
Major thoroughfares, including arterial streets, bridges, subways and freeways will have to be built, to enable vehicular traffic to move rapidly throughout the metropolitan area, particularly into and out of the downtown area. Co-operation will be required to ensure that these arterial routes are located where they will serve most usefully, and are built to the standards required. Co-operation will be needed in handling traffic along such arterial routes, to ensure that the traffic flow is smooth and rapid along their entire length. Main thoroughfares will have to be located with reference to public transit, as well as private vehicular traffic; such streets should be located preferably about one half mile apart, so that buses which operated along them are readily accessible, being no further than one quarter mile from any point, but bus routes should not be so closely parallel as to involve wasteful duplication.
Additional major parks will become necessary, such as Kildonan and Assiniboine Parks. Since such parks will serve the entire metropolitan area, they should be located in suitable sites, which will enable all sectors of the Greater Winnipeg community to enjoy conveniently accessible park facilities; their location should be co-operatively planned with that end in view.
Co-operation will be essential in regard to zoning, to ensure that no municipality permits the location within its boundaries of developments which unfavorably affect the residents of adjacent municipalities. Similar co-operation will be required to ensure that no municipality permits any development to take place within its boundaries which will interfere with the orderly spread of the built-up area. Thus it will be necessary to institute appropriate controls in a broad peripheral band around the present built-up area, through some form of co-operation with the municipal authorities of the areas involved.